Rich countries need to stop using coal by 2030 and oil and gas by 2040, with poorer nations following a decade behind, to give the world a chance of limiting warming to 1.5C, climate scientists told the UN Friday.
In a note to the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and UN Climate
Change body, shared with AFP, climate scientists from the Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Exeter University said there was very little
room for anything but a total phase-out of fossil fuels.
The steep timeline they laid out comes as climate negotiators at the COP28
talks in Dubai are tussling over the future of oil, gas and coal, responsible
for the lion’s share of humanity’s planet-heating emissions.
The UN climate negotiations are tasked with helping the world meet the
Paris deal goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius from
pre-industrial levels, but have often been vague on how that target will be
achieved.
PIK director Johan Rockstrom said that the new calculations sent to the UN
show the world unwinding fossil fuel use at a speed and scale that makes
debates at COP28 about decarbonising by 2050 or a gradual “phasedown” plan
beside the point.
“The discussions should be around serious and fair efforts to start
implementing a phase out plan,” he said.
The note to Guterres uses estimates of the amount of carbon dioxide that
the world can pump into the atmosphere and still limit warming to 1.5C from the
UN’s IPCC climate panel.
The scientists calculate the implications for oil and gas, if wealthy
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries can
phase out coal by 2030, followed by the rest of the world in 2040.
They found rich nations would need to stop using oil and gas by 2040, which
would give other countries until 2050..
But even that challenging timeline could be too optimistic, the scientists
said.
